A Prediction Market User Made $Nearly Half a Million from Bets Predicting Maduro's Downfall.
A bettor made nearly half a million dollars by predicting the removal of Nicolás Maduro immediately preceding it was made public, sparking debate about whether someone profited from inside knowledge of American actions.
Changing Odds in Predictions
Bets placed on the crypto-platform, a blockchain-based service, that the leader would be no longer in control by the close of the month rose in the period preceding Donald Trump declared on Saturday that the Venezuelan leader had been apprehended.
A particular user, which registered on the site recently and placed four wagers, all on Venezuela, made more than $436K from a initial bet of over $32,000.
The identity is unknown. The anonymous account had only a string of letters and numbers for identification.
Market Signals Before Announcement
Platform data shows that traders assessed the probability of the president's removal at just a low 6.5 percent in the afternoon of the prior Friday.
But the market's assessment had jumped to over 10% by shortly before midnight and surged in the morning of Saturday, suggesting a rapid movement in betting activity right before the official statement was made.
"That trade has all the signs of a bet based on inside information," commented an industry expert.
A small number of other individuals also made large payouts from bets on the same outcome.
Political Attention Emerges
Some lawmakers are starting to take note.
A bill put forward on Monday seeks to ban federal workers from placing bets on prediction markets if they have "insider details" related to a wager.
Market Background
Prediction markets have become increasingly popular in the past few years, with participants able to predict everything from sports outcomes to political events.
This sector were examined under the previous administration. Yet it has received a warmer welcome during the current presidency.
Using confidential knowledge is illegal in the traditional financial markets, but there are less oversight in the event betting industry.
A spokesperson for another major platform said their site "has clear rules against insider trading of any form."
